Can We Predict the Movement of Stock Prices?There are techniques and tips available to predict the performance of a stock. But you must understand that it's not an easy bet. Just knowing the analysis techniques is not enough. Instead, you must acquire the skills by experimenting with them in the real world.
Even after acquiring the desired skills, it is not a guarantee that your prediction will always be right. The investor's aim must be to get it right for most of the stock he has invested in, or that may provide him with a sufficient profit margin.
How to Predict the Movement?Let’s look at 4 analysis strategies widely used to predict stock price movement:
1. Intrinsic Value AnalysisAlso known as fundamental analysis, it involves analysing a stock for whether it is undervalued or overvalued by analysing the various economic and financial factors that affect the value of a stock market. It studies the overall state of the economy, the industry's future growth potential, and other company-specific data such as revenue figures, return on equity, and other crucial figures in the company's financial statements. If a stock is undervalued, it is recommended to buy it and vice versa.
2. Watch For BreakoutsWhen a stock is traded in high volumes, which may be nearly 40% or above its normal average trade for the last 40-50 session, a breakout can be identified for that stock. If the fundamentals, market uptrend, and other factors are constant, these stocks may potentially generate good returns. On the other hand, if the breakout is in weak volumes, it is not a good sign and time to consider selling out these stocks.
3. Moving AveragesA simple moving average (SMA) and Exponential moving average (EMA) are popular indicators to identify trend direction. Though both SMA and EMA average out the price fluctuations over a period( 10 days, 30 minutes, 10 weeks, etc.), EMA is more sensitive to price changes than SMA as it gives additional weightage to recent prices. A price crossover(when price crosses above or below SMA or EMA) is generally observed to predict a change in price trends.
4. Derivatives DataDerivatives data, which consists of huge historical data, is also used for predicting the stock price movements. Acquiring the data is not enough alone for a meaningful prediction. The real skill lies in being able to decode it and derive useful information out of it first. Also, derivative structures must be used along with fundamental and technical analysis to make effective predictions.
Though the above analysis techniques can guide you in predicting stock price movements, the human element largely affects the prediction outcomes. Since every human being is different in their way of looking at and analysing the same set of data, conclusions drawn may differ from person to person.
Follow a strategy that aligns with your trading style. Most importantly, minimise your losses if your prediction doesn't go right by putting stop-loss or trailing stop-loss on your trades. Lastly, practice extensively with smaller trades to get better at it before you move on to the big trades.
The information contained herein is generic in nature and is meant for educational purposes only. Nothing here is to be construed as an investment or financial or taxation advice nor to be considered as an invitation or solicitation or advertisement for any financial product. Readers are advised to exercise discretion and should seek independent professional advice prior to making any investment decision in relation to any financial product. Aditya Birla Capital Group is not liable for any decision arising out of the use of this information.
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Aditya Birla Capital (‘the Brand’) is the single brand for financial services business of Aditya Birla Group. The trade logo “Aditya Birla Capital” and the URL www.adityabirlacapital.com is owned by Aditya Birla Management Corporation Private Limited (trade mark owner) and the same is used herein under the License by Aditya Birla Capital Limited (ABCL) and its subsidiary companies (collectively hereinafter referred to as “ABC Companies”). Aditya Birla Capital Limited is the holding company of all financial services businesses.
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If you come across any breaches/violation or offensive material you must report to us at email@example.com
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The Website reserves the right to discontinue or suspend, temporarily or permanently, the facilities. You agree that the Facilities Provider/ ABC Companies will not be liable to you in any manner whatsoever for any modification or discontinuance of the facilities. The format and content of this Website may change at any time. We may suspend the operation of this Website for support or maintenance work, in order to update the content or for any other reason.
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The information provided on or through the Website is for general guidance and information purposes only and they do not in any manner indicate any assurance or opinion of any manner whatsoever. Any information may be prone to shortcomings, defects or inaccuracies due to technical reasons. Certain information on Website may be on the basis of our own appraisal of the applicable facts, law and regulations in force at the date hereof.
The information (and opinions, if any) contained on the Website may have been obtained from public sources believed to be reliable and numerous factors may affect the information provided, which may or may not have been taken into account. The information provided may therefore vary (significantly) from information obtained from other sources or other market participants. Any reference to past performance in the information should not be taken as an indication of future performance. The information is dependent on various assumptions, individual preferences and other factors and thus, results or analyses cannot be construed to be entirely accurate and may not be suitable for all categories of users. Hence, they should not be solely relied on when making investment decisions. Your investment or financial decision shall always be at your own discretion and based on your independent research; and nothing contained on the Website or in any information would construe ABCL/ABC Companies or any of its employees/authorized representative as having been in any way involved in your decision making process. Any information and commentaries provided on the Website are not meant to be an endorsement or offering of any stock or investment advice.
Nothing contained herein is to be construed as a recommendation to use any product, process, equipment or formulation, in conflict with any patent, or otherwise and Facilities Provider / ABCL/ABC Companies makes no representation or warranty, express or implied that, the use thereof will not infringe any patent, or otherwise. Information on this Website sourced from experts or third party service providers, which may also include reference to any ABCL Affiliate. However, any such information shall not be construed to represent that they belong or represent or are endorsed by the views of the Facilities Provider or ABC Companies. Any information provided or sourced from ABCL Affiliate belongs to them. ABCL is an independent entity and such information from any ABCL Affiliate are not in any manner intended or to be construed as being endorsed by ABCL or Facilities Provider. The information does not constitute investment or financial advice or advice to buy or sell, or to endorse or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or other financial instrument for any reason whatsoever. Nothing on the Website or information is intended to constitute legal, tax or investment advice, or an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment or a solicitation of any type. Investment in the securities market and any financial instruments are inherently risky and you shall always assume complete and full responsibility for the outcomes of all the financial or investment decisions that you make, including but not limited to loss of capital. You are therefore advised to obtain your own applicable legal, accounting, tax or other professional advice or facilities before taking or considering an investment or financial decision.
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The information contained on this Website does not represent and should not be used to construe (i) the terms on which a new transaction would be entered into by ABCL or ABC Companies, (ii) the terms on which any existing transactions could be unwound by ABCL or ABC Companies, (iii) the calculation or estimate of an amount that would be payable following an early termination of any past/existing transactions or (iv) the valuations given to any transactions by ABCL or ABC Companies in their books of account for financial reporting, credit or risk management purposes.
ABCL and ABC Companies are engaged in a broad spectrum of activities in the financial services sectors. You understand and acknowledge that Aditya Birla Money Limited (‘ABML’), Aditya Birla Finance Limited (‘ABFL’) and Aditya Birla Sun Life Asset Management Company Limited and trustees and sponsor of Aditya Birla Sun Life Mutual Fund (‘ABSLMF’) are group companies and ABML / ABFL also acts as a distributor of ABSLMF. Any recommendation or reference of schemes of ABSLMF if any made or referred on the Website, the same is based on the standard evaluation and selection process, which would apply uniformly for all mutual fund schemes. You are free to choose the execution facilities in the manner deemed fit and proper and no commission will be paid by ABSLMF to ABML / ABFL if you choose to execute a transaction with ABSLMF on the Website, unless otherwise agreed by you and ABML/ABFL separately. Information about ABML/ABFL, its businesses and the details of commission structure receivable from asset management companies to ABML/ABFL, are also available on their respective Website.
Similarly Aditya Birla Money Insurance Advisory Services Limited and Aditya Birla Insurance Brokers Limited are insurance intermediaries and engaged in the distribution of Insurance Products and it may services may include products of Aditya Birla Sun Life Insurance Company Limited and Aditya Birla Health Insurance Company Limited. However there is no conflict on these services and commissions if any payable are in accordance of the extant regulations.
The Facilities Provider, ABC Companies and any of its Third Party Service Providers shall not be liable for any delay or failure in performance resulting directly or indirectly from acts of nature, forces, or causes beyond their reasonable control, including, without limitation, Internet failures, computer equipment failures, telecommunication equipment failures, other equipment failures, electrical power failures, strikes, virus, other malicious computer code, hacking, labour disputes, riots, insurrections, civil disturbances, shortages of labour or materials, fires, flood, storms, explosions, acts of God, war, earthquake, governmental actions, orders of domestic or foreign courts or tribunals, non-performance of third parties, or loss of or fluctuations in heat, light, or air conditioning.
The Facilities Provider, ABC Companies or any of its third party service providers and processor bank/merchants etc. shall not be deemed to have waived any of its/their rights or remedies hereunder, unless such waiver is in writing. No delay or omission on the part of Facilities Providers and ABC Companies, in exercising any rights or remedies shall operate as a waiver of such rights or remedies or any other rights or remedies. A waiver on any one occasion shall not be construed as a bar or waiver of any rights or remedies on future occasions.
Either party can terminate this Agreement by notifying the other party in writing. Upon such termination You will not be able to use the facilities of this Website.
Governing Law and Jurisdiction
These Terms and Conditions are governed by and to be interpreted in accordance with laws of India, without regard to the choice or conflicts of law provisions of any jurisdiction. You agree, in the event of any dispute arising in relation to these Terms and Conditions or any dispute arising in relation to the Website whether in contract or tort or otherwise, to submit to the jurisdiction of the courts located at Mumbai, India for the resolution of all such disputes.
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